Iowa Wrestling 2025–26: Pressure Points, Portal Bets, and the Goetz Clock

The Iowa Hawkeyes enter the 2025–26 season under as much internal scrutiny as any wrestling team in the country. This isn’t just about dual meet wins or how many bonus-point techs Drake Ayala racks up — it’s about whether the most storied program in collegiate wrestling can function under the weight of its own mythology, a volatile roster, and the very real presence of Athletic Director Beth Goetz, who’s made it clear that oversight is no longer optional.

This team has talent. But talent under pressure is unstable. Tom Brands’ style — intensity turned up to eleven — has produced champions before, but if it backfires now, Iowa’s season could go from contender to postmortem before March.

Lineup Breakdown & Realistic Performance Predictions

125 lb: Dean Peterson (SR Transfer, Rutgers)
Peterson is a grinder who has spent years clawing toward All-American status, but the truth is that he’s still chasing it. He’s not going to light up the scoreboard. He’s not going to beat the top four guys. And in Iowa, that makes him a question mark. If he does his job and stays off his back, the staff will live with it, but fans won’t love it.

• Projection: NCAA qualifier, 1–2 at nationals.
• Projected team points: 2

133 lb: Drake Ayala (JR)
Ayala is Iowa’s most polished star and their safest bet. A returning NCAA finalist who has now proven he can hold up in both duals and tournaments. He’s physically, technically, and mentally bulletproof, at least for now. Ayala has been hovering on the edge of greatness and possesses the talent to become a champion. Still, his coaching is questionable, and reports indicate his relationship with Brands is complicated.  If anything goes wrong here, Iowa has bigger problems than lineup depth.

• Projection: Finishes 3rd at NCAAs.
• Projected team points: 13

141 lb: Nasir Bailey (JR Transfer, Little Rock)
Bailey brings high-level experience from Little Rock and is a legit All-American candidate at his new weight. He’s got slickness, speed, and a chip on his shoulder. However, wrestling in Iowa’s room and meeting Iowa’s expectations requires adjustment. His ceiling is podium, but he’ll need to wrestle nearly mistake-free in March to get there.

• Projection: 7th or 8th at NCAAs.
• Projected team points: 6

149 lb: Jordan Williams (JR Transfer, Little Rock)
Williams is a guy with significant tournament pedigree from high school, but he’s had trouble putting it all together. Two straight blood round losses show he’s right there, but the next step requires consistency, not just talent.  Additionally, Williams was asked to leave Oklahoma State due to legal issues, and he has already run into trouble with the law in Iowa City, so he might not even make it to the fall semester. If he can tune out the noise and lean into Brands’ intensity, he might crack through. Otherwise, he’s the definition of bubble.

• Projection: Blood round loss.
• Projected team points: 4

157 lb: Miguel Estrada (SO)
Estrada had a strong freshman year in open tournaments, but Big Ten duals and the NCAA grind are a different beast. He has potential, but he’ll take lumps. He’s not ready to go deep in March, and that’s not a surprise.

• Projection: Qualifies for nationals, but goes 1–2.
• Projected team points: 1

​165 lb: Michael Caliendo (SR Transfer, North Dakota State)
Caliendo has climbed the ladder one rung at a time: 7th, 4th, 2nd. He is methodical, mature, and precise. He’s not going to tech fall the world, but he doesn’t make mistakes. He’s as close to a sure thing as Iowa has outside Ayala. If the season falls apart around him, he’ll still be the guy winning tough matches in March.

• Projection: Finishes 3rd.
• Projected team points: 13

174 lb: Patrick Kennedy (SR)
Kennedy is the guy who keeps showing up. He wrestles through pain, keeps it close, and scores when it matters. He placed 5th last year, and that’s about the right expectation again. He’s not flashy, but he’s not folding either. And in this lineup, that’s valuable.

• Projection: Finishes 5th.
• Projected team points: 9

184 lb: Angelo Ferrari (RSFR)
Ferrari is electric. His win over Dustin Plott last year made headlines, and his redshirt season showed he’s capable of big-time upsets. He has the tools — explosiveness, speed, and mat IQ — to be a top-five guy. But this is also where the Brands Effect might bite. If Ferrari gets caught up in the mental games, the weight of expectation, or internal conflict, he could spiral. Assuming no implosion, he finishes 5th. If the season goes sideways? He doesn’t sniff the second day in March.

• Projection: Finishes 5th — unless pressure gets to him.
• Projected team points: 9

197 lb: Massoma Endène (GR Transfer, Wartburg)
Endène is Iowa’s great unknown. His credentials are gold-plated: three DIII titles, two Pan-Am U23 golds, and a reputation for pace and power. But the DIII-to-DI leap is real. He’ll wrestle well, but don’t expect fireworks. A couple of close wins, a tight loss or two, and he’s done.

• Projection: One win at NCAAs, then out.
• Projected team points: 2

285 lb: Ben Kueter (SO)
Kueter is recovering from hip surgery, and it is very possible he won’t be 100 percent by the time the season matters. He’s got All-American talent, but that only matters if he’s on the mat. If he misses November and December, he could be rushing to catch up in the postseason. Iowa might get points here, or nothing.

• Projection: Misses time early, wins one at NCAAs.
• Projected team points: 2

Team Score Projection: 61–65 Points
This is enough for a 6th or 7th place finish at the NCAA tournament. Not terrible. Not elite. And not what Iowa considers acceptable.  Absent individual performances that far outpace projections, Brands had best spend some time updating his resume.

The Beth Goetz Variable

Beth Goetz doesn’t need to make threats. Her presence is threat enough. Brands has been allowed to operate largely untouched for his career, but the results have not justified the legacy lately. With Goetz watching closely and pushing for transparency, any downward spiral this year won’t just be chalked up to "tough breaks." It’ll go on the record.

Final Word

This is a lineup with top-tier talent, returning All-Americans, and one of the best wrestling rooms in the country. But if Brands leans too hard on the "pressure builds champions" ethos, he might break the thing instead.

Expect Iowa to score well. Expect Ayala, Caliendo, and Kennedy to carry the torch. Expect Ferrari to either flourish or fold. And expect Beth Goetz to be taking notes, quietly, but with purpose.

Because if this team doesn’t deliver something meaningful in March, the post-mortem will be more than just about wins and losses. It will be about whether the Brands era is still working at all.  Beth Goetz does not award participation trophies; she demands wins.