The Dunning-Kruger Effect Explained

​The Dunning-Kruger effect is a variety of cognitive biases where a person believes they are more intelligent and capable than they are. When low-ability people are biased in this fashion, they do not possess the skills needed to see their ineptitude. Their poor self-awareness and low cognitive ability make them overvalue their expertise. While this used to be the province of the pontificating cocktail party expert, it now has entered the realm of political punditry, Internet shock jocks, and boors of all kinds.

Graphic of Dunning-Kruger Effect Attributed to https://onlinepethealth.com/the-dunning-kruger-effect/.

In 1999, college professors David Dunning and Justin Kruger published the paper "Unskilled and unaware of it: how difficulties in recognizing one's own incompetence lead to inflated self-assessments." In this treatise, they posit that people with little knowledge of a particular subject tend to be more confident and outspoken. The authors propose that people with lower cognition exhibit two behaviors. First, they have little idea of what they are talking about, and second, their overconfidence makes them less susceptible to self-doubt or auditing.

People tend to hold overly positive opinions of their abilities in many communal and academic realms. The authors suggest this overappraisal occurs because unskilled people in these domains experience a dual incumbrance. Not only do these people make erroneous inferences and make adverse choices, but their ineptitude robs them of the metacognitive capability to realize it.

The authors found that participants scoring in the lowest quartile on humor, grammar, and logic tests utterly overrated their test execution and capability. Although their test marks put them in the 12th percentile, they reckoned themselves to be in the 62nd. Several assessments linked this miscalibration to deficits in metacognitive skills or the capability to recognize accuracy from error. Not surprisingly, improving participants' skills and thus increasing their metacognitive competence helped them realize the constraints of their abilities.

Consider the cocktail party pontificator who provides authoritative knowledge about an area where they have little knowledge and, almost always, nothing from direct sources. In an era where most people get their news from social media, the Wild West is unrefereed, with no fact-checking or barriers to entry. 

So, what explains this mental consequence? Are some people simply too thick to identify their weaknesses? Dunning and Kruger propose that this occurrence stems from a "dual burden." People are not only inept; their lack of ability strips them of the mental aptitude to recognize their ineptitude.

Everybody is prone to this occurrence, and most of us probably experience it with astonishing regularity. Legitimate professionals in one area may erroneously think that their intellect and expertise carry over into other fields in which they are less familiar. Particularly susceptible to the Dunning-Kruger effect are people who are seldom challenged – corporate executives, experts, college professors, and, unfortunately, and all too often, men.

The biggest takeaway is to avoid this through a thorough analysis of the sources of one’s expertise.  Are they primary?  Are they confirmed through multiple resources?  Is the information provided through authoritative and refereed sources, or is it merely based on inuendo or even a borderline conspiracy theory?  It's also very healthy to encourage a personal environment where one is challenged by peers.