Putin’s Brilliant Strategy to Recreate the Soviet Union - THE WAGNER GROUP

Vladimir Putin learned intelligence tradecraft during his time as an officer in the KGB and has used that knowledge well to destabilize overseas governments and expand Russia’s influence.   Putin reportedly is unhappy with the fall of the former Soviet Union and intent on recreating Russia’s worldwide influence.  Putin has created an organization called the Wagner Group to infiltrate sovereign territory, destabilize governments, and plant the Russian flag in the Middle East, Africa, and South America.

​Corruption, apparently led by Putin who might be the richest man in the world, has drained the resources of Russia, and the country teeters on the precipice of being a failed state.  As a country, it has negative population growth, has fallen to the 11th largest economy in the world, has an autocratic government with dubious election integrity, and is ranked 9th in annual defense expenditures.  To accomplish his dream of recreating the territorial expanse of the former Soviet Union, Putin does more with less, and he is quite successful.

​The Wagner Group is nominally overseen by Russian Oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin – a familiar name to people who follow United States politics as he also ran the Russian troll farm credibly accused of interfering in the 2016 United States elections. In 2018 Putin maintained Russia has no responsibility for what Prigozhin does because he has no official position.  Through the arms-length arrangement, Russia can intentionally confuse its involvement and stay below historic thresholds for a robust military and diplomatic response while seizing territory and recreating the Soviet footprint.  Putin has created a lifetime command so his planning horizon is decades, not election cycles, and he integrates this in his strategic approach.

Yevgeny Prigozhin and Vladimir Putin - South China Morning Post

​The Wagner Group has known activity in Crimea, Ukraine, Syria, Sudan, the Central African Republic, Libya, Venezuela, and Belarus.

• Wagner Group personnel were the spearhead of the Russian occupation of Crimea in 2014, an event that took Western intelligence agencies by surprise.  The anonymity of the unbadged military personnel helped keep the initial activities concealed and made the occupation a ‘possession is nine-tenths of the law’ issue.
• In Ukraine, Wagner Group has helped Russian-partisan groups fight in major battles against Ukrainian forces and continue to occupy territory making the future annexation of this area by Russia a near-certainty.  Russia is fighting a covert war of attrition against a depleted Ukraine, hiding casualties from the Russian public, and plausibly denying the international repercussions of a gross violation of Ukraine’s sovereign governance.  Russia has also disrupted Ukraine through Internet hacking and interference in elections.
• The Wagner Group was contracted by Syria's state-owned General Petroleum Corp to capture and secure gas and oil fields controlled by ISIS.  The United States Special Forces were engaged in military activity against Wagner Group operatives, killing about 200 in a battle over a small Conoco refinery, illustrating the potential of possible escalation to a larger conflict in muddled international conflicts.
• In Sudan, the Wagner Group backed up then-president Omar al-Bashir's government militarily and is defending uranium, gold, and diamond mines.  Al-Bashir was no ‘Mr. Nice Guy’ - The Hague issued an arrest warrant out for al-Bashir in 2009 for crimes against humanity.  Following Omar al-Bashir's eventual overthrow in a coup in April 2019 the Wagner Group continued to support the Transitional Military Council (TMC) that was established to govern Sudan with assignments in Sudan's defense, mining, and energy sectors. In May 2020 Russia signed a military agreement with Sudan which will allow the entry of Russian warships to Sudanese ports, located on the Red Sea, a very important accomplishment.
• In March 2018 Russia stated that 170 “civilian advisors” (Wagner Group mercenaries) had arrived in the Central African Republic (CAR) to assist government forces. At the end of July, another 500 Wagner Group soldiers-of-fortune appeared on the Sudan-CAR border.  The CAR formerly had military and economic ties to France which has distanced itself in recent years, and the United States has reduced its military presence in Africa during the Trump administration, resulting in the perception the CAR is a ‘state for the taking.’  The country has substantial gold and diamond resources and the Wagner Group is providing services guarding these mines.
• In Libya, the Wagner Group has implanted legionnaires into Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army as advisors. This has resulted in a strengthening of Haftar’s hand and likely additional Russian leverage in Libya’s energy reserves and also another possible naval port in the Mediterranean Sea.
• Wagner Group staff showed up in Madagascar in April 2018 supporting the reelection campaign of Hery Rajaonarimampianina, which failed.  One of the last acts of Rajaonarimampianina's administration was to facilitate a Russian firm's takeover of Madagascar's national chrome producer "Kraoma,” helping secure supplies of a critical mineral.
• In Venezuela Wagner Group mercenaries provided military services to guard President Nicolás Maduro during a coup attempt in January 2019, complementing Russian energy giant Rosneft's investment of $17 billion in the Venezuelan economy.
• Belarus is a developing story.  Belarusian law enforcement detained 33 mercenaries of the Wagner group.  Putin indicated they were in transit to South America to provide legal services – a not-so-clever obfuscation.

Nations with Documented Wagner Group Activity

​Russia counters with claims that Wagner is a private military company identical in purpose to Western companies like DynCorp International, and Academi (formerly Blackwater), and there is some truth in this representation.   Western media rejects this premise out of hand for a variety of reasons but the differences are a matter of shade of questionable ethics, not the fundamental purpose.

​Certain questions result from this analysis:

• Is the United States military withdrawal from Africa a strategic error with generational repercussions?
• Russia’s extension is fundamentally antithetical to democratic and progressive governments.  What are the long-term implications of this devolution?
• Are Western powers adequately protecting tactical mineral supplies and countering Russian strategic moves?
• How can Wagner Group strategies be mitigated?
• The United States is great at building advanced weapon systems that cost a lot to build and maintain but these tools are useless against this type of expansionism.  Should the United States consider investing in other tools that would be cheaper and more effective?
• Should the United States be discussing containment strategies such as that originally proposed by George Kennan in 1947 and then used during the Cold War to stall and then dissolve the Soviet Union?

A good study of this matter can be downloaded from https://carnegieendowment.org/2019/07/08/putin-s-not-so-secret-mercenaries-patronage-geopolitics-and-wagner-group-pub-79442.  General information on the Wagner Group in Africa was obtained at https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-52571777.  Another hearty resource is located at https://www.thecipherbrief.com/column_article/the-wagner-group-a-russian-symphony-of-profit-and-politics.  Information on Venezuela is available at https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_russian_mercenaries_on_the_march_next_stop_venezuela. RT (Russian-funded news network) provides information about Belarus at https://www.trtworld.com/europe/belarus-hands-over-alleged-wagner-mercenaries-to-russia-38908.  Additional information on Belarus is available at https://www.npr.org/2020/08/25/905808711/facing-the-biggest-challenge-ever-to-his-power-lukashenko-looks-to-russia-for-he.  The Atlantic Magazine provides a good look-see on Wagner Group at https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/08/russian-mercenaries-wagner-africa/568435/
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