Why Fox News is Moving to the Middle...

Audience demographics of infotainment giants CNN and MSNBC are forcing Fox to move to a more moderate approach.  The recent Chris Wallace guerilla-interview of President Trump was one of the first salvos in a repositioning of the network to capture a younger and more affluent audience.  More changes are anticipated as the media behemoth attempts to attract more viewers in the 25 to 54 age demographic.

Infotainment – also colloquially known as Hate, Inc. – is a term used to define entertainment programs masquerading as news.  The hour-long programs are built around a personality and are broadcast Monday through Friday between 7:00 p.m. and 10:00 p.m. CST.  The shows are built around a daily theme that reflects a controversial current event.  In Infotainment ‘if it bleeds it leads’ – topics are incendiary and there is no attempt to ‘cross the aisle.’  The formula involves presenting pieces of information bound together with storytelling, conjecture, and hypothetical speculation sprinkled with facial expression, sarcasm, dog-whistle statements skirting defamation, and a general disdain for the ‘other side.’  Fox News carries Tucker Carlson, Sean Hannity, and Laura Ingraham, CNN counters with Anderson Cooper, Chris Cuomo, and Don Lemon, and MSNBC offers Chris Hayes, Rachel Maddow, and Lawrence O'Donnell.

As an aside these programs seem to divide and isolate Americans.  Tucker Carlson doesn't care if Uncle Ralph is not invited to family Thanksgiving because he has become more radical and outspoken due to his rapt attention to his program.  Rachel Maddow is profiting because of higher ratings due to the tsumani of Trump stories.  The American public would be better served to have a serious conversation about how to discriminate between legitimate news and Infotainment.

​It is impossible to imagine an individual consuming, say, both Anderson Cooper and Tucker Carlson.  These programs are strictly tribal and exist as an echo chamber that reinforce not challenge – if one wants an evening rant about President Trump's latest antics then Rachel Maddow is on the menu, but if one prefers to be outraged about hordes of Black Lives Matter and Antifa protesters destroying our heritage then Tucker Carlson will do nicely.   These are strictly meant to inspire feelings, and usually not very good ones.  As a Lincoln Child novel is not pretending to be fine literature these programs are not purporting to be pursuing Pulitzers or even aspiring to be much more than a one-hour rant, with occasional guest spots like the Mary Trump on Rachel Maddow's program or President Trump’s appearances on Sean Hannity’s show.

The second quarter of 2020 was a good one for Fox News—and cable news in general—with viewership up across the board due to no sports broadcasting, the coronavirus pandemic, and the upcoming presidential election.   Fox News finished first with a total audience in the prime time of 3.5 million viewers, followed by MSNBC (1.9 M) and CNN (1.8 M).  Among viewers 25 to 54, however, Fox News led with 624,000, followed by CNN (528,000) and MSNBC (315,000).

​On initial examination it appears to be a great report for Fox News, however, deeper investigation indicates systemic challenges that will force Fox News to alter its content as depicted in the following charts.  CNN and MSNBC attract essentially the same tribal cohort.  Compounded MSNBC and CNN attract a larger audience (51.6%) but a much more important factor is they capture a significantly higher audience in the high-value 25 to 54 age group at 57.5%.  Also significant to note is CNN is very close to Fox News in this highly sought after demographic.

​Is Fox News an ideological organization or a firm motivated by profits?  While the Murdoch family might be conservative, they like money even more, and the likelihood is they will pursue viewers who are ideologically more to the middle to attract higher advertising revenue.  The recent Chris Wallace takedown of President Trump is a good indicator of Fox News moving to the middle.  Other indicators are softer and harder to formally identify and the move to the middle is hard to empirically substantiate – but President Trump certainly thinks they are.  His recent tweets include comments:

• “Looking for a new outlet!”
• “@FoxNews is out with another of their phony polls, done by the same group of haters that got it even more wrong in 2016.  Watch what happens in November.  Fox is terrible!”
• "So hard to watch @FoxNews anymore."
• "@FoxNews just doesn't get what's happening!  They are being fed Democrat talking points, and they play them without hesitation or research."

Fox News might consider certain actions:

• If President Trump’s reelection campaign continues to cavitate will Fox become critical in the runup to the election?
• It will be very difficult to reposition Tucker Carlson, Sean Hannity, or Laura Ingraham as moderates to help capture more favorable ratings in the evening slots.  Will Fox News make a move in one or more of those timeslots to a different host?  The anticipated passing of daytime Infotainment radio rantmaster Rush Limbaugh will leave an opening in daytime radio which might be assumed by Sean Hannity in a convenient career transition.
• Tucker Carlson has trouble attracting big money advertisers after recent comments about Black Lives Matter.  Even though he is the most watched of the Fox News crew, would he be replaced to garner more advertising revenue?
• Would Fox News consider a bench player at a competing network for a more moderate host?
• Is Fox News positioning Chris Wallace for one of these slots?

​Information related to the second quarter rating report was obtained at https://www.forbes.com/sites/markjoyella/2020/06/30/tucker-carlson-has-highest-rated-program-in-cable-news-history/#7bc09ff76195.  General information about infotainment ratings was acquired at https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/18/business/media/tucker-carlson-advertisers-ratings.html.  More granular information was collected from https://www.adweek.com/tvnewser/category/ratings/.